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Source: Rabobank

Interesting outlook on the global economy from Rabobank via Business Insider. Richard McGuire, Head of Strategy for Rabobank, charts the likelihood and impact of various global catalysts that could shake markets up. We see the usual suspects such as the Fed tapering too quickly, emerging market issues and Chinese growth slowing. However, McGuire identifies the biggest threat for 2014 as a potential Euro-skeptic domination of the Euro-parliament elections in May, which could destabilize the imminently fragile monetary project.

  • ...one of the most immediate threats is that regarding the planned banking union — this, as should the current parliament fail to ratify these plans ahead of the election, the makeup of the one subsequent to the poll will make this ratification that much more of a cumbersome process...in a broader (but related) level meanwhile, a Eurosceptic shift within the European Parliament would stand to raise questions as to how easy it might be for the core to develop additional crisis-combating mechanisms should these become necessary once again.

Definitely a quick and worthwhile read.