Haywood Commodity Price Revisions: Moderating for a New Paradigm
This week, Haywood released a revised commodity price forecast. Changes to several commodity price decks are echoed in the negative performance of mining equities and commodity prices during the last quarter. Changes include the long-term gold price, which was lowered from $1,300 to $1,250 per ounce, silver was reduced from $21.50 to $18.00 per ounces, nickel was lifted from $8.00 to $8.25 per pound and metallurgical coal was lowered from $145 to $130 per tonne. Exchange rates were also modified to reflect a strengthening U.S. dollar, which appears to be the main driver for lower precious metal prices as the U.S. economy shows continued signs of recovery. The positive sentiment towards the U.S. economy continued during the week, with gains in mortgage applications and home sales. In contrast, Chinese and European economic data continued to disappoint. The war on Islamic State militants hit closer to home this week, after a gunman shot dead a guard at the National War Memorial in Ottawa, while concern over the spreading Ebola virus continued after a doctor was diagnosed in New York.
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[National War Memorial photo source]