From Stock Trader’s Almanac:

“Copper has a tendency to make a major seasonal bottom in December and then a tendency to post major seasonal peaks in April or May.”

This is one of the strongest seasonal patterns in any market and it’s all the more interesting this year given that copper made a low of $2.79 on December 1st. Even after poor results during 2012 and 2013, in this trade’s history it has a success rate of 66.7% for a cumulative profit of $78,000 based on a single copper futures contract.

While the seasonal tailwinds are clear as day the technical picture for copper is about as murky as it gets. The monthly chart shows price breaking down below major support near $3 from a massive descending triangle:

Copper_Monthly_12.10.2014

Meanwhile the CFTC commitments of traders data shows speculators at an extreme net short interest while commercials are at their largest net long position in more than 5 years:

Copper_COT_data

Source: Barchart.com

A reversal back above $3 could indicate that copper made a false breakdown at the end of November and the seasonal tailwinds combined with the heavy speculative short positioning could help ignite a powerful short covering rally. Regardless of how things play out, it will be interesting to watch the copper conundrum unfold.