The options market is currently pricing in a $39 absolute move in gold between now and the close of trading on December 31st. Given that gold has a tendency to make outsized moves during the final days of the year, this seems a bit cheap to us. After all, 3% isn't much for a market which has regularly experienced 5%+ daily moves this year:

Gold_Daily_12.16.2013

A violent short squeeze back above the $1300 level or a capitulation sell-off down to the $1100s seems much more likely given the dramatic year that 2013 has been for the gold market. What do you think? A quiet end to the year, a short covering rally, or another dramatic sell-off?