From Fractal Vibrations:

Click to enlarge


It is interesting to note that gold has very closely followed its price action from the late 1990s. If this pattern continues to hold true we should expect a major bottom to be put in place by summer 2014.

Here is commentary from fractal chartist Patrick Ambrus:

"The Gold chart above is a chart of the current Gold price action from the 2011 top through today overlaid against the price action of 1993-1999. The chart suggests consolidation through the end of 2013 after which we can expect a full retest of the June $1179 swing low with scope for $1150 and $1100 should sentiment sour further and panic liquidation ensue. Thereafter the analog suggests gold will squeeze aggressively back above 1400 perhaps between June and October 2014 (if the decline accelerates this price action may manifest sooner). After the squeeze volatility should collapse as bullish consolidation takes hold before the structural trend higher resumes in 2015 and the $2000 price level is eventually achieved."

We tend to agree with this analysis, however, there is a good chance that the bottom may be in place sooner rather than later (perhaps by the end of the year). Moreover, from our estimation $2000 is a very conservative long term price target.