CEO.CA Newsletter – March 26, 2014

POSTED ON March 26, 2014 BY Tommy Humphreys
CATEGORY Stories,

The Guy Who Gets Killed Is Often The Guy Who Gets Nervous....

WWII: Europe: France; “Into the Jaws of Death — U.S. Troops wading through water and Nazi gunfire”, circa 1944-06-06. Source: Wikimedia Commons, a great place to find rights free images, BTW.

"The guy who gets killed is often the guy who got nervous. The guy who doesn’t care anymore, who has said, “I’m already dead—the fact that I live or die is irrelevant and the only thing that matters is the accounting I give of myself,” is the most formidable force in the world." Chatterton via Holiday

What else should you know?

Ivanhoe Mines released a positive PEA for their Platreef project in South Africa this morning. At first glance the 14.3% after tax IRR looks average, especially when something like Roxgold's Yaromoko has a 47.7% IRR (my colleague Travis wrote about Roxgold today). Also Platreef's $1.6 billion after tax NPV is considerably less than the $2.9 billion implied valuation a Japanese consortium paid for their 10% interest in the project.

So why didn't Ivanhoe shares crash today? [They actually rose 6.4% in early trading, before closing at $1.72, down a penny on 1.915 million shares]

Because, Platreef looks set to become the world's largest platinum mine, with the lowest production costs in Africa (where over 70% of the stuff comes from), for the next 35-100 years.

Major miners favor generational projects because they become more efficient over time, and expansions can be timed around rising commodity prices.

To quote Don Lindsay, CEO of Teck Resources, “[Mining is] a cyclical business, and you know that you’re going to get all of your money back in 2 or 3 good years. What you don’t know is when those 2 or 3 good years are going to be. However, if you have 50 years, you’re going to have those 2 or 3 good years 5 or 6 times.”

Here's a link to the full Ivanhoe Platreef PEA news release.

Also, a South China Morning Post story just went up about Ivanhoe CEO Robert Friedland's speech at the Mines and Money Hong Kong Conference yesterday, where he warned of a coming air-pocalypse and its implications for commodities (Link).

I also want to tell you about a friend of mine who has been on a hell of a run recently...

That man is Keith Schaefer, editor of the Oil and Gas Investments Bulletin, which is rapidly becoming the most influential energy investment newsletter in the world. Why?

Subscribers are getting really rich from the picks - more on that in a second.
It's very entertaining and informative to read and written in plain speak.
Keith's completely transparent and honest, which is saying something for an investment letter writer...
Only $38 per month makes it exclusive, yet accessible to most investors.

What's not to love about OGIB?

Keith's premium letter, emailed to subscribers 1-4 times per week, covers what Keith has his eye on, and what he's doing with his own money.

OGIB aggregates research from the entire energy industry, coupled with Keith's own analysis, and countless interviews with CEOs. He applies a technical analysis filter to help with timing, and boils the industry down into layman's terms.

Keith is also blunt. Far too many investment newsletter writers are vague with their recommendations. They discuss companies but hesitate to stick their neck out with an immediate recommendation. However if said stock goes up they're sure to remind you they introduced it...

Schaefer is the polar opposite. When he has a pick, he beats you over the head with it.

Take Pacific Ethanol ($PEIX) for example:

Nov 22, 2013: Keith introduces PEIX, tells subscribers he will be buying shares in the market the following day;
Nov 24, 2013: Keith alerts his subscribers that he has purchased 30,000 shares at $3.15;
Nov 26, 2013: Keith forwards comments from a call he has with the PEIX CEO, reiterating his enthusiasm for the company;
Dec 3, 2013: Keith publishes an 18 page report on PEIX for his subscribers; and,
Dec 11, 2013: Reaffirms support.

And if you were wondering, he has written about the company 19 more times in the four months since...

Here's the chart:

That's a payday of over 5x in four months. Keith's up about $400,000 on the trade himself.

Happy Keith... If I was a luxury car salesman, I'd be calling him up right about now...

As incredible as the PEIX trade was, it's just one of 49 picks that have returned greater than 100% since Keith founded OGIB in 2008.

The success he's been enjoying suggest his future calls will be even more powerful.

Keith has over 60,000 followers on Seeking Alpha now, which is a huge audience on that popular investing site.

Those subscribers only get his free stuff. Keith's Premium Letter ($39/month here) is the first place his actionable ideas are mentioned.

Heart in the right place

As you can tell, I really like Keith. I have gotten to know him over the past four years at conferences (watch a 2012 interview we taped together in Montreal), and as someone to bounce ideas off of.

I can tell you he has huge integrity. Keith refuses compensation to talk up companies to his premium subscribers. This is key as there are so many shills guised as analysts in the resource sector... Keith is not one of them.

Most of the competing investment letter publishers have huge teams and resources at their disposal to grow their businesses. They are typically very good at one thing: Selling newsletters.

Keith is great at picking winning energy stocks and filtering through the noise.

Over time, I only see his product getting better and better.

Now it's time to reach for your wallet

The world's best energy investment newsletter is just $38 per month.

Keith Schaefer's OGIB Premium will make you better informed, and with any luck, a heck of a lot richer for subscribing.

You should go to OGIB and buy a subscription now. The cost is nothing next to the value you'll be getting.

If you are not satisfied within 30 days, Keith will give you a full refund, no questions asked.

I'm proud to write this recommendation for Keith Schaefer. Go now and join the next great global investment newsletter. The fun is just getting started.

Have a powerful conclusion to your week,

Tommy Humphreys

Founder / CEO.CA

* Please note author holds a share position in Ivanhoe Mines which means he is biased. Additionally the potential 100 year Platreef mine life is speculation on his part, and will require significant expansion of the current resource, which is open to the south. This is an opinion piece and not investment advice. Always do your own due diligence. Thank you.

Tommy Humphreys

Tommy Humphreys, 30, is an entrepreneur, investor and writer from Vancouver, Canada. He founded CEO.CA, a popular junior mining and Canadian finance blog, in 2012. He has been the president of Pacific Website Company Inc., a private marketing and web development company, since 2007. Tommy has authored articles for Globe and Mail, Financial Post and others. He speaks at select conferences. Reach him by email: tommy@ceo.ca. Follow him on Twitter: @TommyHump More →

Twitter: @tommyhump

tommyhump@gmail.com

Tommy Humphreys

Twitter: @tommyhump

tommyhump@gmail.com

Disclaimer:

Readers are advised that the material contained herein is solely for information purposes. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and/or obtain professional advice. Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. The information contained herein is based on sources which the publisher believes to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate, and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. They may from time to time have a position in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, and may change their positions without notice. (Any significant positions will be disclosed explicitly. This article is not intended to meet your specific individual investment needs and it is not tailored to your personal financial situation. Nothing contained herein constitutes, is intended, or deemed to be — either implied or otherwise — investment advice. Thomas Humphreys, Pacific Website Company Inc., and other entities in which he has an interest, employees, officers, family, and associates may from time to time have positions in the securities or commodities covered in these publications or web site. We reserve the right to buy and sell such securities or commodities without notice to readers. While the information herein is believed to be accurate and reliable it is not guaranteed or implied to be so. The information herein may not be complete or correct; it is provided in good faith but without any legal responsibility or obligation to provide future updates. Neither Thomas Humphreys, nor anyone else, accepts any responsibility, or assumes any liability, whatsoever, for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of the information in these publications or web site.

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