2014 Subscriber Investment Summit Recap

POSTED ON October 10, 2014 BY CEO Technician
CATEGORY Events, Subscriber Summit,

Full house at Vancouver's Pan Pacific Hotel for Keith Schaefer, Eric Coffin and Tommy Humphreys's Subscriber Investment Summit yesterday (Carter Smith photo)

I had the pleasure of attending the 2014 Subscriber Investment Summit in Vancouver today. It was an insightful gathering of resource executives, investors, and newsletter writers. There was even a billionaire or two in the room and naturally plenty of "corporate pillow talk" (credit to Keith Schaefer for the phrase).

The mood of the conference was generally positive, albeit tame in terms of the overall level of optimism on the sector. In fact, Eric Coffin of HRA Advisories stated that "300 to 400 companies still need to leave the space (go bust)" before the market really lifts off.

There were some really top notch presentations including some valuable insights for the audience. Here is some of what I learned:

Aveda Transporation and Energy Services Inc. (AVE.V) gave one of the better presentations. Aveda has quickly become the best in class transportation and energy services provider in North America. At today's market closing Aveda shares are trading at 65% of book value and the company is profitable to boot.
Nathan Weiss of Unit Economics delivered a power packed presentation which included an analysis of natural gas price sensitivity. Nathan sees $3.50 as the equilibrium price for natural gas with dips below $3 being supported by coal-to-gas switching by power plants and moves above $4 being met with a deluge of supply from producers.
Pure Gold (PGM.V) is a unique way to play the Red Lake Gold District via the Madsen Project which has existing mining infrastructure in place, including a 500 tonne per day mill, a 1,275 metre deep shaft, 24 levels of underground workings, a headframe, and a permitted tailings management facility, all connected to roads and power. The company has been conducting a summer drill program, the first results of which should be public within 2-3 weeks.
Excelsior Mining (MIN.V) is a very interesting "in-situ" copper play in Arizona - $1.37/lb all-in cost with potential for full remediation of mine site with little environmental issues. I should add that the chart has held up quite well during the brutal tape of the past 6 weeks in the mining space.
Red Eagle Mining (RD.V) CEO Ian Slater presented a straightforward path to production and free cash flow within two years. We would also add that the company's stock has done well in a difficult market for juniors, particularly those with exposure to Colombia.
Nolan Watson of Sandstorm Gold (SSL.TO) talked a bit about gold as money and confessed that he carries a one ounce gold coin in his wallet to remind himself of that fact. Sandstorm is committed to becoming the gold sector's best risk adjusted, cash flow investment vehicle. With $165 million in available capital for acquisitions I have no doubt that Nolan will be able to find some very attractive deals in the current depressed environment of the gold space.
Eric Coffin of HRA Advisories gave an insightful macro market roundup and it almost felt as if he had read my mind. However, Eric believes that if the S&P 500 goes into a deep correction gold will also suffer. I believe that gold will likely benefit under such a scenario as the Fed and other major global central banks will undoubtedly move back into their roles of stoking the liquidity spigots into full throttle.
During the final Q&A portion of the conference I had the opportunity to ask the assembled newsletter writers "What would you do if you were handed $1,000,000 to invest right now?" - the answers were very similar with high cash levels being favored. Nathan added that he would short the natural gas ETF (UNG) and Tommy offered that he would begin legging into the likes of Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.T), NGex Resources (NGX.TO), and Torex Gold (TXG.TO).
The consensus seems to be that tax loss season will come early this year (October/November) and there is no hurry to jump into the junior space - while we may be at a bottom it seems more likely to be a "bathtub bottom" as a opposed to a "V-bottom"

I would like to thank Katy and her team who were top notch in their organization and planning of the conference. The Pan Pacific Vancouver was an exceptional venue and I look forward to returning next year, hopefully amid a much more cheerful market backdrop for the junior resource space.

CEO Technician

10 year veteran trader & portfolio manager focused on US/Canadian equities, precious metals futures, US Treasury bond futures, and foreign currency utilizing a technical approach with a deep macro-market understanding. More →

ceotech@ceo.ca

CEO Technician

ceotech@ceo.ca

Disclaimer:

Readers are advised that the material contained herein is solely for information purposes. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and due diligence, and/or obtain professional advice. Nothing contained herein constitutes a representation by the publisher, nor a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. The information contained herein is based on sources which the publisher believes to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate, and does not purport to be a complete statement or summary of the available data. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. The owner, editor, writer and publisher and their associates are not responsible for errors or omissions. They may from time to time have a position in the securities of the companies mentioned herein, and may change their positions without notice. (Any significant positions will be disclosed explicitly. This article is not intended to meet your specific individual investment needs and it is not tailored to your personal financial situation. Nothing contained herein constitutes, is intended, or deemed to be — either implied or otherwise — investment advice. Thomas Humphreys, Pacific Website Company Inc., and other entities in which he has an interest, employees, officers, family, and associates may from time to time have positions in the securities or commodities covered in these publications or web site. We reserve the right to buy and sell such securities or commodities without notice to readers. While the information herein is believed to be accurate and reliable it is not guaranteed or implied to be so. The information herein may not be complete or correct; it is provided in good faith but without any legal responsibility or obligation to provide future updates. Neither Thomas Humphreys, nor anyone else, accepts any responsibility, or assumes any liability, whatsoever, for any direct, indirect or consequential loss arising from the use of the information in these publications or web site.

Forward-Looking Statements: This article may include certain "forward-looking information" within the meaning of Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements include predictions, projections and forecasts and are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "believe", "plan", "estimate", "forecast", "expect", "potential", "project", "target", "schedule", budget" and "intend" and statements that an event or result "may", "will", "should", "could" or "might" occur or be achieved and other similar expressions and includes the negatives thereof. All statements other than statements of historical fact included in this release, including, without limitation, statements regarding the potential of the Company's properties are forward-looking statements that involve various risks and uncertainties. There can be no assurance that such statements will prove to be accurate and actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Forward-looking statements are based on a number of material factors and assumptions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from Company's expectations include actual exploration results, changes in project parameters as plans continue to be refined, future metal prices, availability of capital and financing on acceptable terms, general economic, market or business conditions, uninsured risks, regulatory changes, delays or inability to receive required approvals, and other exploration or other risks detailed herein and from time to time in the filings made by the Company with securities regulators. Although the Company has attempted to identify important factors that could cause actual actions, events or results to differ from those described in forward-looking statements, there may be other factors that cause such actions, events or results to differ materially from those anticipated. There can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate and accordingly readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements which speak only as of the date of this article. The Company disclaims any intention or obligation, except to the extent required by law, to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Always do your own due diligence. We seek safe harbor.