1. The yield curve has significantly flattened during 2014 with the spread between 2-year Treasury Notes and 10-year Notes falling from 264 basis points in January to 169 basis points today: Falling yields at the long end (10-year and 30-year) and rising yields at the short end (2-year and 5-year notes) are undeniable signs of… Continue Reading
1. The crude oil chart is not encouraging at all; bounces have been shallow and the decline since the summer has been orderly: 2. US crude oil production (mostly from shale oil) continues to explode higher while crude oil imports are in a clear downtrend: 3. OPEC left production quotas unchanged this morning in… Continue Reading
After a very rough couple of months for the miners, November has treated the sector quite well with a 24% rally from the early November low: Despite the fact that GDX has rallied 24% in the past 3 weeks the easy part is over. A snapback rally from a capitulation sell-off is par for the… Continue Reading
From Stock Trader’s Almanac: “Gold prices tend to move up prior to the holidays, and the trend has worked especially well over the last 14 years. Seasonally speaking, it is best for traders to go long on or about November 19 and hold until about December 4…..” What’s most interesting about this gold seasonality analysis… Continue Reading
Self-help guru Tony Robbins is out with a new book which offers a slew of financial advice including an “All Weather Portfolio” (AWP). Without delving into too much detail (others have already done this favor for us….), the crux of Robbins’ All Weather Portfolio is a recommendation to allocate 55% of ones portfolio into US Treasury… Continue Reading
From Wikipedia on the so called January effect: “The most common theory explaining this phenomenon is that individual investors, who are income tax-sensitive and who disproportionately hold small stocks, sell stocks for tax reasons at year end (such as to claim a capital loss) and reinvest after the first of the year.” In the modern… Continue Reading
From Reuters: “Copper prices dipped on Tuesday, as disappointing property sector data from China raised concerns about the outlook for demand from the world’s top metals consumer.” Copper has been oscillating near the $3 mark for well over a month now and speculators (both large & small) have continued to pile on bearish bets: This… Continue Reading
Today was an important day for the gold miners for a number of reasons: GDX broke above the downtrend which began in early September All the large one day rallies in the past few months have been immediately met with selling the following day, today’s action represents a change of character The miners were up… Continue Reading
During the past 18 months we have seen a massive shift in holders of gold. The following 3 charts tell the story quite well: Click to enlarge Retail investors and portfolio managers have dumped more than 1,000 tonnes of gold from gold exchange traded funds during the last two years. Meanwhile central banks have purchased… Continue Reading
Last weekend we pointed out the importance of the week ahead for gold. After a tumultuous start to the week gold found its footing in a big way on Friday and closed the week in impressive fashion: Click to enlarge After posting a series of higher lows gold surged above previous support at $1180 on… Continue Reading
The monthly chart of USD/JPY (US dollar in Japanese yen terms or ¥ per $) illustrates a massive bear market (bull market in yen) which began in 1998 and ended during the 2nd half of 2011: Click to enlarge Given that USD/JPY is referring to the Japanese yen price of the US dollar, rises in USD/JPY mean… Continue Reading
The following piece from Yahoo! Finance (Michael Santoli) is making the rounds: A final purge to $700? What gold bulls’ surrender might look like. It has a sexy title that draws forth the reader’s curiosity and the piece does a decent job of summarizing the overall state of the gold market in a cogent and to the… Continue Reading
The massive Republican sweep in the US midterm elections has opened the door for the Keystone XL Pipeline bill to finally be approved by Congress and signed by the President. There is even a possibility that Senate Democrats will push the Keystone Pipeline bill through before Christmas in order to help out Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu… Continue Reading
The uranium space caught some attention last week after an important vote in Japan opened the door for nuclear reactor restarts. Here’s an excerpt from Haywood Mining Team’s week in review: “The Broker Average Price (BAP) for U3O8 rose 8.1% this week, up 3.8% on Thursday alone, before finishing at $41.00 per pound U3O8 on… Continue Reading
Gold posted a powerful upside move during Friday’s session following dovish comments by ECB President Mario Draghi and a weaker than expected US payrolls report: Click to enlarge Gold (Hourly) The rally stopped just shy of previous support near $1180 while printing a bullish reversal ‘hammer’ candlestick on the weekly chart: The CFTC Commitments of… Continue Reading
