I came across an interesting article from Bloomberg this morning with some quotes from some big names on gold: “I don’t care if you are Einstein…..It’s impossible to forecast for a week from now and a year from now.” ~ Peter Munk “Nobody really understands gold prices…..And I don’t pretend to really understand them either.” ~… Continue Reading

Copper has long been one of the trickiest markets to trade; it has regularly caught the crowd positioned exactly the wrong way and posted vicious moves in the opposite direction. However, in recent weeks the red metal has been unusually placid as it has oscillated near major support at ~$3.00/lb: Click to enlarge Copper Weekly… Continue Reading

Gold miners, as represented by the HUI (NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index), gapped below their 2008 lows on the open this morning: Click to enlarge This chart is remarkable considering the magnitude and severity of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008 and speaks to the depth of the bear market in gold shares we’re seeing today. However,… Continue Reading

There is one sector of the equity market that may be a clear beneficiary from the recent large decline in the price of crude oil, oil refiners. Refiners are entering their most bullish time of the year historically (November through March) and refining margins (crack spreads) are widening: Click to enlarge   During the past… Continue Reading

The Central Fund of Canada (NYSE:CEF, TSX:CEF.A) is a $3 billion closed-end fund whose sole mandate is to invest in gold & silver bullion. As of yesterday’s market close the Central Fund had 61.1% of its assets in gold bullion and 38.4% of its assets in silver bullion: Click to enlarge CEF trades like a regular… Continue Reading

Mark Dow of the Behavioral Macro blog is out with a thoughtful post titled “Precious Metals. The Second Wave of the Bubble Unwind is Upon Us”.  Dow has been bearish on gold for the past couple of years, and he makes several astute points in his post. Here is a key excerpt: “When I’m asked how… Continue Reading

Some thought provoking material we are reading this weekend…. TraderFeed – Does Greater Wealth Make Us Happier? BarentsObserver – Russia plays nuclear war-games in Barents Region  All Star Charts – Thinking Out Loud Heading Into November Barron’s – Commodities: Buy When the World is Selling MarketWatch – Petrobras auditor demands deeper corruption probe

It is not a coincidence that gold has seen a low of $1161 thus far in today’s large sell-off: Click to enlarge There is a great deal of Fibonacci confluence in the $1154-$1160 area (the 50% retracement of the entire 2003-2011 bull run and the 61.8% retracement of the 2008 low to the 2011 peak).… Continue Reading

After yesterday’s ugly session it was pretty much a foregone conclusion that gold would knife through the $1180 level, an area of support which it has tested on 3 different occasions since June 2013. As is often the case the breakdown took place in the early morning hours New York time: Gold is currently fumbling… Continue Reading

Gold stocks were hammered today with many senior producers falling by more than 5%. Barrick Gold (ABX), the world’s largest gold miner, was particularly hard hit; its shares reached levels not seen since 2003 when gold was $330/ounce and copper was below $1/pound: Click to enlarge This chart is truly remarkable. It tells a story… Continue Reading

A simple yet powerful technical indicator is flashing a red warning light that stocks are overheated: Click to enlarge NYSE McClellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted) with S&P 500 above 80.30 is the highest the NYSE McClellan Oscilator has read since September 18th, 2013, a date which marked a short term market top from which the S&P… Continue Reading

Total assets in gold exchange traded products reached fresh 5-year lows last week: Click to enlarge In addition, total assets in the Rydex Precious Metals Fund (an excellent gauge of retail investor sentiment) reached 12-year lows yesterday as investors continue to flee the space in disgust: It is interesting to note that as funds continue to… Continue Reading

A compelling piece of research from Goldman Sachs is being passed around the street this morning. It makes the case for $75 crude oil for the next 12+ months.  Here are the key points: The 2015 global oil market will be significantly oversupplied unless US shale production growth slows, which will only happen if prices… Continue Reading

October has been a bad month for natural gas and there might be more to come. The breakdown from the 10-week descending triangle indicates a downside target of at least $3.40: Click to enlarge Large natural gas storage builds also present a significant headwind for the market – from Morgan Stanley: December has been the worst… Continue Reading

Here are the 5 things that you might see near a market top: 1. Commodities rolling over CRB Index   2. Deteriorating market breadth with leadership sectors (energy, financials, and technology) getting hit especially hard S&P 500 1-month heat map   3. Volatility and volume expansion S&P 500 daily with average true range below  … Continue Reading