Some quality material we are reading this weekend: BBC Video – “Is this Iranian the most powerful man in Iraq?” WaPo – “Compromise needed on smartphone encryption” BloombergView – “ECB Drops Anchor as Deflation Looms” TraderFeed – “Buyers on Strike” International Crisis Group – “What lies behind the “Islamic State” threat”
Last summer we highlighted the record small speculator net short position in gold futures just one week before the yellow metal ripped more than $150 in the space of a month. The latest Commitment of Traders Report shows a new record small spec net short interest as of Tuesday, September 30th: Click to enlarge Last August we… Continue Reading
This is very early in a story, the implications of which are highly unclear. However, the ebola outbreak in west Africa is centered around an area of enormous gold production (southern Mali, Ghana, and Burkina Faso): Click to enlarge Source: cdc.gov Ghana, Burkina Faso, and southern Mali all border ebola ravaged areas of Guinea and Cote… Continue Reading
The 1999-2011 gold bull market was primarily predicated on two main tenets: A weakening US dollar and the gradual demise of the dollar as the World’s reserve currency Loose monetary policy and low interest rates (even negative real interest rates) for as far as the eye could see This morning gold is falling hard following another monthly… Continue Reading
After a 238 point drubbing on the Dow one might expect some panic among investors or knee-jerk bearish reactions from market commentators. That would be an incorrect assumption in the current market environment. As the S&P faces a crucial test of key trend support, the equity put/call ratio is no where near a panic level… Continue Reading
A busy morning thus far, here is some of what we are reading: Bloomberg – “Fed Scrutiny of Leveraged Loans Grows Along With Bubble Concern” Hulbert – “Wait for one more bounce in stocks before a broad decline” CNN – “1st Ebola diagnosis in the United States: Should we worry?” Mish – “Draghi Pressures ECB… Continue Reading
While it’s big brother gold struggles to keep its head above the $1200/ounce mark, silver has cleanly snapped support and broken down to its lowest levels since Spring 2010: Click to enlarge SLV (Weekly) The breakdown from the descending triangle currently targets the $15-$15.50 area – it is important to note that, according to Bulkowski, breakdowns… Continue Reading
The Weekly chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) is arguably the most important chart out there right now: Click to enlarge The momentum divergences and decreasing volume at each successive high are certainly worth making note of. Notice that the weekly RSI-14 has not fallen below the median line in nearly two years and there… Continue Reading
With one day left in the month, September is shaping up to be the worst monthly performance for the senior gold miners (both the GDX and HUI are down roughly 18.5% for the month) since the dreadful month of June 2013: Click to enlarge HUI Gold Bugs Index (Monthly) The gold miners are down 5 weeks in… Continue Reading
The euro currency may soon be in close competition with the Argentine peso for world’s most hated currency. After falling more than 1000 pips in less than 3 months vs. the US dollar (from over 1.3700 in early July to 1.2684 today), euro futures speculators are now placing record short bets against the eurozone’s single… Continue Reading
The Russell 2000 small cap index (IWM) has been a perennial laggard during much of 2014 and is now on the verge of a highly significant breakdown: Click to enlarge A classic complex head & shoulders top has formed with many of the textbook signs (higher volume on the left shoulder, large red candlesticks along with… Continue Reading
Some worthwhile material we are reading this morning….. All Star Charts – When Long Shadows Fail Bloomberg – China Watchdog Finds $10 Billion in Fake Currency Trade Yahoo – Will India’s arrival at Mars spur the growing Asian space race to new heights? The New Yorker – The War Machine Advisor Perspectives – China Update: opportunity or… Continue Reading
Since Friday morning equities have formed a rare bearish reversal pattern and the Russell 2000 (IWM) is on the verge of making a controversial ‘death cross’. However, perhaps most alarming is the fact that high-yield corporate bonds are on the verge of breaking down through a key area of support and the 200-day simple moving average:… Continue Reading
The TSX-Venture Composite is insanely oversold right now. In fact, this is the most oversold the index has been in nearly three years (October 2011): Click to enlarge Down 7 days in a row with a daily RSI-14 of 16.80 – the TSX-V is arguably the most oversold it has been since October 2011 when the… Continue Reading
Some people have already begun to call it the ‘Alibaba Top’ and there really is a feel of “this time is different” – since the minor correction of November 2012 every single dip has been bought and the bull market has continued to produce higher highs. Mark Hulbert is out with a must read piece… Continue Reading
