After a tumultuous week gold once again found support near $1290 and posted an impressive rebound to close the week: Click to enlarge A bullish engulfing candlestick on Friday along with the promise of the seasonally bullish August/September months being right around the corner offer gold bulls plenty to be smiling about this weekend: Source: Casey… Continue Reading
In the era of ultra-low put/call ratios and an apparent lack of need for portfolio hedging due to the indefatigable equity uptrend, it has become unusual to see the index put/call ratio spike above 1.50. Today the index put/call ratio closed above 1.50 for the first time since April 1st: Click to enlarge It just… Continue Reading
Economic bellwether Caterpillar (CAT) reported disappointing revenue numbers this morning and the stock is under pressure: Click to enlarge Breaking the large rising wedge to the downside – support exists near $105 and then at the May lows in the $100-$101 area In its earnings press release Caterpillar attributed much of the top line weakness… Continue Reading
Copper is testing important support/resistance near the $3.20 level: Click to enlarge And there is ample reason to believe that this could be an attractive long entry point as we move deeper into the back half of the year: With commercial inventory at a 2-year low and declining amid a strong pick up in demand, the… Continue Reading
The shares of the senior gold producers continue to exhibit impressive resilience as they threaten a breakout from a 15-month head & shoulders bottom pattern: Click to enlarge There is ample reason for optimism that the 2nd half of 2014 could be even better than the first half for the gold miners – the top… Continue Reading
For the first time in nearly a year there is trouble brewing in bond land: Click to enlarge HYG – High-Yield Corporate Bond ETF S&P 500 vs. HYG vs. PowerShares Leveraged Loan ETF This could be the first crack in the foundation of the five year long “reach for yield” bull market in corporate bonds… Continue Reading
Stuff we are reading this morning: New Yorker – What is Putin’s Next Move? Advisor Perspectives – Profits – Plus a “Mystery Booster” – Are Driving the Stock Market Higher Marketwatch – We’re in the third biggest stock bubble in U.S. history FT – Gold moves where dollars fear to trade BloombergView – Gold Dreamers Face Harsh Reality
Gold has continued its trend of inflicting maximum pain upon market participants who attempt to jump aboard seemingly nascent trends in the precious metal. Just as gold futures speculators reached their largest net long position in more than a year, gold suffered a false breakout above resistance near $1330: Click to enlarge Source: Barchart.com False… Continue Reading
Some market related observations: One of the key drivers of the recent bull run in equities has been corporate stock buybacks. Buybacks have drastically slowed in recent months….http://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-sign-the-bull-market-is-nearing-its-end-2014-07-09 Gold is back to a crucial area of support ($1300-$1307) after suffering a false breakout last week Portugal’s 2nd largest bank, Espirito Santa, is just the cusp of… Continue Reading
After consolidating between $1310 and $1330 for the past three weeks gold has posted an impressive upside breakout this morning: Click to enlarge August Gold Futures (4-hour) August Gold Futures (15-minute) The big nut to crack still lies in the $1400 area, which represents the neckline of the large inverse head & shoulders bottom: … Continue Reading
I happened to turn on CNBC at the 3pm hour today in order to get a grasp on where market sentiment was currently vibrating. Despite the S&P being down a solid 50 basis points and small caps posting their biggest losses in over 2 months I proceeded to hear the most bullish set of punditry… Continue Reading
Some noteworthy material we are reading this morning: FT – “Swiss banks threaten freeze on US accounts over tax evasion” Bloomberg – “Bond Anxiety in $1.6 Trillion Treasury Repo Market as Failures Soar” WSJ – “As Food Prices Rise, Fed Keeps a Watchful Eye” Advisor Perspectives – “Houston We Could Have a Problem in Government… Continue Reading
After an early swoon gold miners closed at session highs as they continue to form a formidable looking bullish flag pattern: Click to enlarge One might have thought that a blowout jobs report would have dealt a severe blow to gold and gold mining stocks. However, after an early sell-off both recovered impressively with gold… Continue Reading
Some quality material that we are reading this morning: Pension Partners: From Alpha to Beta: A Long/Short Story Bloomberg: How to Win $20 Million at Poker The Big Picture: Single Variable Market Analysis is for Losers Bloomberg: Google Just Made Big Data Expertise Much Tougher to Fake TraderFeed: Mucking Your Trading Hand
Last Friday the Chicago Board Options Exchange SKEW Index rose to its highest level since 1998: Click to enlarge What is SKEW you might ask? From the CBOE website: “CBOE SKEW Index values, which are calculated from weighted strips of out-of-the-money S&P 500 options, rise to higher levels as investors become more fearful of… Continue Reading
