Some good stuff that we are reading today: NYT: Iran Secretly Sending Drones and Supplies into Iraq WSJ: U.S. Ruling Loosens Four-Decade Ban On Oil Exports Advisor Perspectives: GDP Q1 Third Estimate Plunges to -2.9% MW: This is what needs to happen for gold to rally Bloomberg: Why Is Dubai’s Stock Market Crashing?  

2012 and 2013 were years that gold investors would like to forget. Yet at the same time the brutal bear market of 2012-2013 in gold mining shares has planted the seeds for the next bull run. As it stands now, 2014 is shaping up to be the year that the next cyclical bull market in… Continue Reading

Since our “Some Reason for Optimism in the Gold Miners” post from two weeks ago, the senior gold miners have posted nothing short of a 10% rally: Click to enlarge The most interesting aspect of the recent rally in gold stocks is the fact that the metal itself has lagged considerably behind: Given that we… Continue Reading

After a blistering start to the year we warned readers in March that several solar charts were showing warning signs that all was not well for this sector. As it turned out many solar names would fall 40-50% over the ensuing ten weeks: Click to enlarge CSIQ   GTAT   SCTY Now it appears that… Continue Reading

Three weeks ago gold broke down below support near $1275. At that time it was impossible to find a single bull in the room. Speculators (trend followers) also began initiating fresh short positions and there was a slew of blog posts proclaiming that gold was headed below $1000 in short order. As is often the… Continue Reading

With crude oil prices breaking out above $106/barrel this morning and many of the major integrated oil names overbought on multiple time frames investors may want to look to junior energy companies for additional upside this summer. While we remain bullish on Petromanas Energy longer term, 2 other companies are on our radar for more… Continue Reading

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (WTI for short) has traded in a narrowing range for the past few months and might be on the verge of a large move higher: Click to enlarge 1. A decisive breakout above $105 from the multi-month ascending triangle would indicated a measured move target of roughly $120/barrel 2. July… Continue Reading

    As the gold mining sector enters its worst time of the year historically (June & July) there is some reason for hope. The weekly chart of GDX (Gold Miners ETF) shows a potential head & shoulders bottom that is nearly symmetrical: Click to enlarge The head & shoulders bottom is virtually symmetrical with… Continue Reading

We just completed an eventful week across global financial markets which included among other things: More all-time highs for US large cap equity indices (Dow, Nasdaq-100, S&P) An unprecedented ECB decision to impose negative deposit rates and enact a targeted 4-year LTRO The May US non-farm payrolls report continued to show a steady pace of improvement… Continue Reading

US equities as gauged by the S&P 500 are now more overbought than they have been in over a year. However, in all likelihood they will become more overbought before undergoing a pullback/correction: Click to enlarge  The relative strength index (RSI-14) is above 70 for the first time since May 2013. However, the breakout above… Continue Reading

ECB President Mario Draghi brought the “goods” this morning and the only question that remains is whether any of this “stimulus” will actually flow through to the real economy – once again the ECB staff projections were very weak and pushed out advances in growth to 2015: Draghi: staff projections 0.7% 2014, 1.1% 2015, 1.4%… Continue Reading

The current low volatility regime across markets is virtually unprecedented. In fact, the last time we experienced anything remotely similar was May 2007, just before the early rumblings of the Global Financial Crisis kicked off a tumultuous summer across global markets. It is fair to say that we are in the midst of a low… Continue Reading

I came across a few research notes this morning and one in particular stood out to me as being quite symptomatic of the current market environment: So once again analysts are gazing into their crystal ball and coming up with earnings estimates 12-18 months out. This is a fruitless task to say the least, but… Continue Reading

We’re all well aware of the bearish summer seasonality (June & July) for the precious metals sector. However, there are suddenly a few reasons to believe that this summer will break the mold of what investors have become accustomed to: Click to enlarge The sell-off came early this year with a 10%+ decline in GDX… Continue Reading