Gold is ripping higher as Asian markets open trading for the week: Click to enlarge While $1300 now becomes support, the $1321 level is of much more significance over the near term as this level is likely to serve as resistance: With bearish sentiment at record extremes and commercials at their most bullish positioning in… Continue Reading
Remember Herbalife? Back in December after uber-arrogant hedge fund manager Bill Ackman unveiled his short position and his bearish thesis, I pointed out how Ackman had a limited time frame for his trade to unfold. In fact, Ackman was destined to lose his bet against HLF as long as the company kept running its business,… Continue Reading
It is rare for an entire sector to be as deeply oversold as the gold miners have been for such an extended period of time. However, such marked underperformance sets the stage for a powerful countertrend rally – even after today’s sizeable gains, gold miners are poised for at least another 15-25% of upside: Click… Continue Reading
Gold’s decade long bull run from 2001-2011 was predicated upon two primary supporting trends: 1. A falling US dollar and a growing global distrust and waning confidence in the greenback as the world’s reserve currency. 2. Falling US Treasury yields and negative real interest rates throughout much of the developed world. While there are certainly… Continue Reading
After gold had fallen nearly $45 on Friday morning something that we haven’t seen in a while happened. Gold gradually began to rise, eventually ending the week back above $1220 in a sign that the gold market may have reached a point of selling exhaustion. A higher low in price that coincides with a new… Continue Reading
While most market participants were enjoying some time away from the screens last week, crude oil staged a highly significant breakout: Click to enlarge WTI Crude Daily WTI Crude Monthly Even Brent crude blasted through a major support/resistance zone near $106: While we could certainly see some digestion of recent gains over the near term,… Continue Reading
JP Morgan is out with its first overweight call on commodities since September 2010 (a call which turned out to be highly prescient) – here are some of the key takeaways from this bold contrarian call: Seasonality is very favorable once again for commodities Risk is now skewed toward demand growth surprise and production disappointments… Continue Reading
Despite massive bearish media hysteria, the gold mining shares ETF traded record volume today, closing up 7.5%. The highly liquid Gold Miners ETF (GDX) posted its highest daily volume in history during today’s monster 7.5% rally: If today’s market action is any indication, gold bears may have overstayed their welcome. Look for further upside in… Continue Reading
There is a lot of humble pie being served up to the gold investment community in recent weeks. We should know, as much as we have tried to help identify high probability bottoming opportunities in both precious metals and mining stocks, the selling has been relentless. Rather than going through all the usual extreme data… Continue Reading
After spending several months hammering out a top, US equities entered August 2011 facing a growing number of storm clouds (impending US downgrade, US recession fears, renewed eurozone turmoil). On August 3rd stocks appeared to be in free-fall when a late session rebound back into positive territory gave bulls hope that perhaps the worst was… Continue Reading
Let’s review what can easily be described as the most tumultuous week of the year across global financial markets in pictorial format: Click to enlarge TLT (weekly) US Real Treasury Yields Treasury Yield Curve US 10-year Real Treasury Yields since 2003 S&P 500 (weekly – Andrews pitchfork) IWM (weekly) West Texas Crude Oil (weekly) Gold… Continue Reading
The highly liquid gold miners ETF (GDX) is at a crucial juncture ahead of tomorrow’s widely anticipated FOMC announcement and press conference: Click to enlarge A near perfect inverse head & shoulders bottom has formed, however, this chart pattern is nothing more than a possibility until price has broken above the ‘neckline’ (roughly $31.00). The… Continue Reading
An important chart from The McClellan Market Report illustrating the latest commitment of traders report in gold futures which shows the lowest commercial net short interest since 2001: Click to enlarge This is a decidedly bullish phenomenon for gold – click over to read the rest “Gold COT Data Show Bottoming Condition”
The MercenaryTrader guys have quickly become one of my favorite trading blogs. Yesterday, they published a post entitled “Letting the Trade Make Itself” – this post happened to be along the lines of many ideas which I have been playing with and attempting to articulate recently. I am especially fond of the following concept: “There… Continue Reading
There’s a lot going on in the world right now, more than usual. In all seriousness, today’s equity market losses were modest relative to what could go wrong in the various simmering global hot spots. The NSA story is nothing short of HUGE, Turkey is indicative of a much larger feeling of uneasiness coursing throughout the… Continue Reading
