Via Energy and Gold.com: If I didn’t know better I could have never guessed that crude oil is down nearly 50% in less than a year. The Houston real estate market is white hot with residential listings regularly going for above asking price and sellers are finding eager buyers in a matter of days. Houston… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: This is an interesting graphic courtesy of RBC illustrating a large drop-off in managed money (CTAs, commodity pool operators, etc.) positioning in commodity futures: After reaching extremely high net long exposure earlier last year before the crude oil crash, managed money positioning has fallen off a cliff and moved down to a… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: It might be hard to believe but WTI crude has rallied nearly 50% since March 17th. While crude’s recent rally has certainly taken the crowd by surprise (as illustrated by tremendous short covering in the exchange traded fund USO) there’s ample reason to believe that crude oil’s upside move may have… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: We are seeing a very interesting dynamic take hold in crude oil futures markets: In recent weeks we have witnessed a confluence of forces; speculators have covered shorts in large numbers while also aggressively adding to long positions, meanwhile, producers have hedged aggressively by selling futures contracts in order to lock… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: I came across two powerful China charts from J.P.Morgan this weekend:   During the last decade the correlation between Chinese monetary conditions/nominal GDP growth and commodities is almost uncanny; the CRB bottomed at the exact month that China monetary conditions bottomed in early 2009 and began rolling over again in 2011 just… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Weekend Commodity Chart Wrap 4/18/2015…   Gold with realized volatility (top) and implied volatility (bottom) Both realized and implied gold volatility have been in decline since the beginning of the year. The GVZ (CBOE Gold Volatility Index) is currently pricing in barely more than a 4% move over the next 30… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Despite crude oil’s recent rally global demand is still expected to downtick for the next few weeks before surging in May in anticipation of the summer driving season:   Crude oil traders are clearly looking past the current bearish market dynamic (record inventory levels) and looking to the summer demand pickup amid hopes of… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Daily commodity chart wrap 4/7/2015…   WTI Crude Oil (Daily) WTI tested the $54 resistance level today. While this is at least the 3rd time this level has been tested during 2015, it is the first time since February so some pause/pullback is to be expected before a decisive breakout takes… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: I have not kept it a secret that I have been looking for a marginal new low in WTI crude to wash out weak handed longs followed by a violent upside reversal. Today this scenario happened in a most unexpected way following another huge crude inventory build report from the EIA. Crude… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Record inventories and the prospect of further inventory builds in the US are putting WTI crude prices under heavy pressure this morning. Given the likelihood of additional inventory builds over the coming weeks there is a strong risk of a further decline to below $40/barrel. While I believe that a dip… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Solars are easily the best performing sector of 2015. Here are just a few of the percentage gains we have seen among solar stocks in 2015: CSIQ +32% FSLR +33% SPWR +26.3% TSL +21%   During the past week solars have fallen along with the broader equity market pullback. I believe… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: All indications are that we are at a very interesting moment for crude oil. Oil market analysts have been calling for a supply glut during Q2 2015 that would continue to weigh on crude oil prices. However, we are seeing reasons to believe that the supply issues may be overstated and may… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: The XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index) rose nearly 6% on the day for its 2nd strongest single day performance since December 2011: Today also marks the first daily close above its 50-day simple moving average since August 29th for XOP. The volume and momentum divergences at… Continue Reading

From Mark Hulbert: The Dow Transports haven’t gone anywhere during the past couple of months even as crude oil has fallen a further 20%+ in the same time period. This is a very interesting phenomenon given that one would think that a decline in the #1 input cost for the transport sector would be a… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: US crude inventories are at record highs and production is at the highest levels in several decades. Meanwhile, refinery outages (both planned and unplanned) are helping to put a crimp in near term demand – from Bloomberg Briefs: This market dynamic helps to explain the current structure of the crude oil… Continue Reading