Past gold price bottoms have closely coincided with small speculators moving to a net short position in gold futures. As of Tuesday September 16th the small specs were still holding out with a net long position of more than 4,000 contracts and had actually increased their bullish bets in the previous week: Click to enlarge… Continue Reading
This morning gold has broken key support near $1240 and hopes for a head and shoulders pattern bottom are all but dashed: Click to enlarge The white oval is the ‘last stand’ area of support I highlighted earlier in the week – gold is currently at a level of ‘oversold’ (green ovals) that has historically… Continue Reading
Gold is under heavy pressure again this morning and a ‘last stand’ for gold bulls is fast approaching: Click to enlarge The gold futures chart shows a bearish engulfing candlestick forming today after last week’s breakdown from the large symmetrical triangle The $1240 level (support from early June) is now the last line of defense before… Continue Reading
Unsurprisingly, Goldman Sachs’ head of commodities research, Jeffery Currie, told investors to short gold highlighting that the crises in Ukraine and Europe are supporting the price of gold but that the US Fed’s Policy shift would cause a sharp decline in the price of gold. Sound familiar? Currie is calling for a +$200 per ounce price… Continue Reading
The ECB openly entered the quantitative easing game (QE) this morning with a plan to purchase a “broad portfolio of transparent asset backed securities”. The chart below clearly illustrates why the ECB has finally hit the panic button with regard to QE: Click to enlarge Source: FT “Should it become necessary to further address risks of too… Continue Reading
After today’s $23 decline gold is at a key juncture – here are the most important charts: Click to enlarge Gold (Daily) – testing bottom rail of downtrending channel Gold (Weekly) – H&S bottom with key support at $1240 Gold (Weekly) – break of multi-month symmetrical triangle targets ~$1050 There can be no doubt that gold is at… Continue Reading
The wild excitement and crazy price fluctuations of 2011 seem to be a distant memory. Meanwhile, the mainstream financial media barely talks about gold and most portfolio managers are underweight precious metals and mining shares. While the casual observer might interpret this relative lack of interest in gold as a sign that the yellow metal has… Continue Reading
A lot of observers are wondering when the bottom will come for the gold market. And evidence globally is starting to suggest it could be soon. One of the main reasons is struggling production, as many of the world’s most important production centers are now being pinched by lower metals prices. News this month shows that… Continue Reading
The vast majority of gold miner charts share a familiar chart pattern that has been forming during the last year, the head & shoulders bottom: Click to enlarge GDX Weekly This pattern is now at a crucial inflection point which could be resolved within the next week. In addition to the bullish seasonal period we are… Continue Reading
Gold has continued its trend of inflicting maximum pain upon market participants who attempt to jump aboard seemingly nascent trends in the precious metal. Just as gold futures speculators reached their largest net long position in more than a year, gold suffered a false breakout above resistance near $1330: Click to enlarge Source: Barchart.com False… Continue Reading
Some market related observations: One of the key drivers of the recent bull run in equities has been corporate stock buybacks. Buybacks have drastically slowed in recent months….http://www.marketwatch.com/story/another-sign-the-bull-market-is-nearing-its-end-2014-07-09 Gold is back to a crucial area of support ($1300-$1307) after suffering a false breakout last week Portugal’s 2nd largest bank, Espirito Santa, is just the cusp of… Continue Reading
After consolidating between $1310 and $1330 for the past three weeks gold has posted an impressive upside breakout this morning: Click to enlarge August Gold Futures (4-hour) August Gold Futures (15-minute) The big nut to crack still lies in the $1400 area, which represents the neckline of the large inverse head & shoulders bottom: … Continue Reading
Two potentially big stories for gold are unfolding right now. In disparate parts of the globe. First in terms of gold supply. In the world’s fifth-largest bullion producer: Peru. Reports late last week from the Peruvian government show another notable decline in monthly gold output. With production for May falling 24.6% compared to the year-ago… Continue Reading
After an early swoon gold miners closed at session highs as they continue to form a formidable looking bullish flag pattern: Click to enlarge One might have thought that a blowout jobs report would have dealt a severe blow to gold and gold mining stocks. However, after an early sell-off both recovered impressively with gold… Continue Reading
Some good stuff that we are reading today: NYT: Iran Secretly Sending Drones and Supplies into Iraq WSJ: U.S. Ruling Loosens Four-Decade Ban On Oil Exports Advisor Perspectives: GDP Q1 Third Estimate Plunges to -2.9% MW: This is what needs to happen for gold to rally Bloomberg: Why Is Dubai’s Stock Market Crashing?
