Via Energy and Gold.com: As illustrated by the following 2 graphics US equity investors have gone from greed to fear in exactly one month despite a relatively small movement in the market (3% in the S&P 500):   While the recent price action, flattening moving averages, and spike in volatility is consistent with a topping… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: US equities have come under heavy pressure this week after the small-cap Russell 2000 post yet another all-time high last week. There are more than a few signs that all is not well for equities, however, the situation is not yet dire: The recent uptrend in IWM is currently being tested… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: The small cap Russell 2000 Index has exhibited relative strength for several weeks and seemingly makes another all-time high with each new day. Even as the S&P and Dow suffered some notable down days the Russell managed to remain well bid and has spent the last four days of this week making fresh… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Eurozone equity allocations have not been this high since 2006 which happened to coincide with a major peak in relative performance of EU equities vs. the world:   Meanwhile, the German DAX Composite Index hasn’t been this far above its 50-day simple moving average ever! Not even the 2000 dot-com bubble… Continue Reading

The main driver of the US equity bull market and the recent slew of all-time highs has undoubtedly been corporate stock buybacks. Nearly 3/4 of S&P 500 companies (72%) participated in share buybacks during the 4th quarter of 2014 and the total dollar amount of share buybacks was the 2nd largest ever, second only to… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Solars are easily the best performing sector of 2015. Here are just a few of the percentage gains we have seen among solar stocks in 2015: CSIQ +32% FSLR +33% SPWR +26.3% TSL +21%   During the past week solars have fallen along with the broader equity market pullback. I believe… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: The most bullish aspect of the recent equity market environment has been relatively tame sentiment. Only now after a 100+ S&P point rally within just 2 weeks is sentiment beginning to turn optimistic again:  Source: CNN Money Fear & Greed Index If the S&P prints fresh all-time highs over the coming… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: This is a question people have begun asking themselves this week. Previously the thought of a Greek exit from the eurozone brought about images of bank runs, stock market crashes, and other euro area members leaving the common currency. However, what if a Greek exit were to be contained and the… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: The Russell 2000 (IWM) is up nearly 400% from the 2009 market bottom, however, judging by the following chart pattern breakout the final blow-off rally may have just begun: IWM has been in a messy consolidation since the end of October and this morning’s breakout from the diamond pattern, if it… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Tomorrow morning (North American time) the ECB will make its much awaited announcement which is almost sure to include some form of quantitative easing program. A series of leaks this morning, the most market moving of which was reported by Bloomberg, disagrees on the size and duration of the program to… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com Commercial hedgers (“smart money”) are almost always short equity futures to some extent. As a market timing gauge when the commercials move to near a neutral positioning in futures it is usually a good time to get long equities, whereas, when the commercials move to an extremely large short position it’s… Continue Reading

At first sight, the following chart is pretty jaw dropping: WTI Crude Oil (spot) vs. XLE Thus far in the month of December WTI crude oil is down more than 22% while the XLE (SPDR Energy ETF) is up 1%! This tremendous outperformance by the large integrated energy companies that comprise the XLE (Chevron, Exxon… Continue Reading

It’s a bit of a tradition among market commentators to come up with a list of ‘surprises’ for the new year. Some of us like to combine both macro/geopolitical events with market events. I have decided to limit my 6 surprises to market events as that is my area of expertise and the primary focus of… Continue Reading

There is one stock in particular that caught my attention last week after displaying impressive strength following a ‘weak’ earnings report.    Then yesterday it rallied aggressively and posted a highly significant chart pattern breakout.  The stock is Canada’s favorite fallen angel, Blackberry (BBRY): The monthly chart shows how far BBRY shares fell after the company began to… Continue Reading

Over the weekend we pointed out this would be a crucial week for markets. This week’s volatility hasn’t really cleared anything up although there are some notable observations to be made after today’s trading session: Equities found support at an area of previous resistance and a key Fibonacci level Today’s large rally in interest rates is… Continue Reading