Via Energy and Gold.com: Weekend Commodity Chart Wrap 4/18/2015…   Gold with realized volatility (top) and implied volatility (bottom) Both realized and implied gold volatility have been in decline since the beginning of the year. The GVZ (CBOE Gold Volatility Index) is currently pricing in barely more than a 4% move over the next 30… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Despite crude oil’s recent rally global demand is still expected to downtick for the next few weeks before surging in May in anticipation of the summer driving season:   Crude oil traders are clearly looking past the current bearish market dynamic (record inventory levels) and looking to the summer demand pickup amid hopes of… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: Daily commodity chart wrap 4/7/2015…   WTI Crude Oil (Daily) WTI tested the $54 resistance level today. While this is at least the 3rd time this level has been tested during 2015, it is the first time since February so some pause/pullback is to be expected before a decisive breakout takes… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: I have not kept it a secret that I have been looking for a marginal new low in WTI crude to wash out weak handed longs followed by a violent upside reversal. Today this scenario happened in a most unexpected way following another huge crude inventory build report from the EIA. Crude… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: All indications are that we are at a very interesting moment for crude oil. Oil market analysts have been calling for a supply glut during Q2 2015 that would continue to weigh on crude oil prices. However, we are seeing reasons to believe that the supply issues may be overstated and may… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: The XOP (SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production Index) rose nearly 6% on the day for its 2nd strongest single day performance since December 2011: Today also marks the first daily close above its 50-day simple moving average since August 29th for XOP. The volume and momentum divergences at… Continue Reading

From Mark Hulbert: The Dow Transports haven’t gone anywhere during the past couple of months even as crude oil has fallen a further 20%+ in the same time period. This is a very interesting phenomenon given that one would think that a decline in the #1 input cost for the transport sector would be a… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: US crude inventories are at record highs and production is at the highest levels in several decades. Meanwhile, refinery outages (both planned and unplanned) are helping to put a crimp in near term demand – from Bloomberg Briefs: This market dynamic helps to explain the current structure of the crude oil… Continue Reading

Since oil really started crashing, the media can only talk negatively about oil. These are the same talking heads who had no clue about the impending 50% plunge in prices. Why do we listen to them—instead of paying attention to facts? Here is one fact….US gasoline and oil demand is surging. That may surprise you,… Continue Reading

Via Energy and Gold.com: There are some constructive signs mounting in crude oil: Demand has clearly picked up in the US as drivers enjoy sub-$2 gasoline prices in many parts of the country Sentiment on crude oil is the worst its been in a very long time, by many gauges it is worse than it… Continue Reading

There’s a race going on in the oilpatch now to the bitter end—the end of the year. And it’s not being driven by economics.  It’s being driven by the REAL currency in the oilpatch: Reputation. The energy market is cyclical and all the veteran producers and bankers of the oilpatch know this. Each senior management… Continue Reading

The massive decline in the price of crude oil turns out to be a significant net positive for multinational miners. Not only are the lower oil costs are a huge positive on the costs side, but the resulting currency moves (big drops in AUD/USD and CAD/USD) also turn out to benefit miners whose revenue comes… Continue Reading

It seems like everyone’s got an opinion on oil these days. Some people think oil is heading to $40 while others are of the opinion that the sell-off has been too harsh and prices should rebound rapidly. Sorry to disappoint but I don’t fall into either camp. Here are my thoughts on crude oil in… Continue Reading

We have various contacts at major cruise lines and commodities trading desks. Most of the airlines and cruise lines are now fully hedged on their fuel costs through the end of 2016. Even Carnival Cruise Lines, which previously prided itself on not hedging much of its fuel costs, has taken advantage of the decline in… Continue Reading

Here's today's insane move in oil. pic.twitter.com/U2UCxyuae5 — Joseph Weisenthal (@TheStalwart) November 28, 2014 As an especially concentrated natural resources investor, the recent 30+% drop in oil prices has caused a huge hit in my paper wealth. Fortunately, if I manage my expenses I can survive a nuclear winter in oil. Still, it’s been an… Continue Reading