Since the gold crash six weeks ago we have seen price trade within a roughly $140 range, with the midpoint of that range and the greatest amount of market tension centering around ~$1400:

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Gold_5.23.2013_2

Should gold rally back above the key $1400 level, the odds would greatly favor a major bottom being in place (especially given the context of extreme bearish sentiment and market positioning) - and a further rally up to the large volume by price bar near $1470-$1485 would suddenly be in the cards.

Below $1400 the bears still hold the upper hand, however, with the huge increase in gold options activity (particularly in puts) perhaps the maximum pain trade will be for gold to continue to oscillate around $1400 for a few more weeks. Whatever happens, the $1400 level will offer market participants a useful guidepost to remain mindful of over the coming weeks.