Via Energy and Gold.com: After a promising start to the year copper has been in a steady downtrend since May and the red metal has just touched the rising 200-month simple moving average for the first time since late-2008: While it is true that copper prices quickly reversed higher the last time this moving average… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: 8 days ago I sent out a tweet calling for $1150 gold within a couple of weeks based upon strong seasonal tailwinds and the likelihood that we would get some significant short covering after futures speculators had become over zealous in piling on short positions: This morning we’ve traded as high… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: Remember this chart that was passed around quite a bit earlier in the year? This chart has become important again as crude oil prices flirt with the $40/barrel level. Cash costs (variable operating costs) are distinct from the overall cost of an oil project because they are the costs associated… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: The most widely followed commodities index, the CRB (Reuters/Jefferies Commodities Index), closed below its 2009 Global Financial Crisis low last week: (The CRB closed even lower today due to declines in crude oil and copper) An interesting excerpt from a recent Morgan Stanley research note: “We also think it’s important to… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: Stocks have gotten whacked in the last 24 hours with the S&P 500 falling more than 40 points from high to low. The daily chart of the S&P (SPY) shows a potential breakdown from a pennant pattern which has formed during the last 6 weeks: The crucial level to watch… Continue Reading
Gold is at an interesting crossroads. Sentiment couldn’t be much worse and the technical picture is putrid. However, we are entering what has historically been by far the most bullish 5 week stretch of the year historically: The clear bullish bias lasts all the way through Labor Day (September 7th). We will be interested to… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: The latest CFTC Commitments of Traders Data shows that as of Tuesday’s close (7/28/2015) dumb money gold futures speculators (small specs) held the largest net notional short position in history: The small speculators net short position totals 9,199 contracts or slightly more than $1 billion USD notional. Read also –… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: An interesting dynamic has taken shape in gold in recent weeks. As price has continued to oscillate in a roughly $30 range between $1075 and $1105 sentiment has further deteriorated, here is a small sampling of some of the headlines that have been out there the past couple of days: Two… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: With gold floundering just below $1,100/oz for the last week gold bulls are digging for reasons to be optimistic. However, the following two charts courtesy of Morgan Stanley Research indicate that relative to other commodities gold is fairly is expensive and producers have not yet responded to the recent price decline… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: “Is this it for gold?” is the question many are asking themselves this morning. With the yellow metal falling $50/oz in a matter of minutes Sunday night one has to wonder if the coffin is closing for the long-term gold bull market or are we rapidly nearing a bottom in what has… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: Whole Foods (WFM) has spent the last couple of months forming a pretty impressive bottoming pattern. Today the stock was up 2.02% and posted its first close above the 50-day simple moving average since March: WFM looks like an attractive long setup for the following reasons: Clear bullish momentum divergence… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: The chart of 30-year fixed mortgage rates dating back to the early ’70s is a sight to behold: For the last several years American borrowers have been blessed with the good fortune of historically low Treasury Bond yields which have in turn translated into historically low 30-year fixed mortgage rates (a… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: If the Saudis intention is to damage US shale oil production as they maintain record crude oil outputs despite a more than 50% drop in the price of oil in the last year, the following two charts illustrate that they are achieving their goal: Since March there has been a… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: Last week we highlighted the 3200-3400 area in the Shanghai Composite as a likely support zone from which a dead-cat bounce could begin and that is exactly what has transpired over the last few days: The rebound has been fairly aggressive (20% in 3 trading sessions) and the target area… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: While the CFTC Commitments of Traders Report is far from an exact market timing tool, it does offer one of the best gauges of market positioning and sentiment. After Tuesday’s sell-off speculative positioning fell to a level of net length that has more often than not coincided with major lows: … Continue Reading
