We just completed the worst week for the S&P 500 since May 2012 and there are more warning signs out there across markets than there are Christmas lights on my neighbor’s house. However, every time things have begun to look bleak this equity bull has picked up its horns and trampled over anyone who has dared to… Continue Reading

We have various contacts at major cruise lines and commodities trading desks. Most of the airlines and cruise lines are now fully hedged on their fuel costs through the end of 2016. Even Carnival Cruise Lines, which previously prided itself on not hedging much of its fuel costs, has taken advantage of the decline in… Continue Reading

1. The yield curve has significantly flattened during 2014 with the spread between 2-year Treasury Notes and 10-year Notes falling from 264 basis points in January to 169 basis points today: Falling yields at the long end (10-year and 30-year) and rising yields at the short end (2-year and 5-year notes) are undeniable signs of… Continue Reading

A simple yet powerful technical indicator is flashing a red warning light that stocks are overheated: Click to enlarge NYSE McClellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted) with S&P 500 above 80.30 is the highest the NYSE McClellan Oscilator has read since September 18th, 2013, a date which marked a short term market top from which the S&P… Continue Reading

Here are the 5 things that you might see near a market top: 1. Commodities rolling over CRB Index   2. Deteriorating market breadth with leadership sectors (energy, financials, and technology) getting hit especially hard S&P 500 1-month heat map   3. Volatility and volume expansion S&P 500 daily with average true range below  … Continue Reading

Support/resistance levels are an important fundamental of technical analysis from which many other concepts/tools/indicators can be overlaid to create more powerful market analysis. Let’s look at the recent face-ripping rally in the Russell 2000 (IWM): Click to enlarge IWM found support near the 110-111 area many times earlier this year, therefore it is no surprise that… Continue Reading

“If you don’t do macro, macro will do you.” – Mitchell Julis Bear market rallies can be fierce. The hope for a bottom ignites a chase, especially when market participants are playing from behind; this only serves to increase exposure when investors should be doing the opposite. That makes this market as difficult as any… Continue Reading

Ten days ago before all the recent fun started we penned a piece entitled “2008 Redux?”. The main point of this piece was to highlight the striking similarities between the current market and the lead up to the 2008 market meltdown. Most notably we just witnessed one of the worst months ever (September) for commodities… Continue Reading

As I write this the S&P 500 is down nearly 3% in what is the worst day for US equities since 2011. However, it is worth noting the S&P 500 is now testing an important area of support/resistance dating back to the end of last year: Click to enlarge While there is panic in the… Continue Reading

I happened to turn on CNBC at the 3pm hour today in order to get a grasp on where market sentiment was currently vibrating. Despite the S&P being down a solid 50 basis points and small caps posting their biggest losses in over 2 months I proceeded to hear the most bullish set of punditry… Continue Reading

While the Nasdaq-100 is flirting with a classic head & shoulders topping pattern, the S&P 500 has formed a diamond pattern over the last three months: Click to enlarge This pattern is likely to reach some resolution next week; a break below the 50-day simple moving average (~186.50) would indicate a measured move target of… Continue Reading

With the situation in Ukraine reaching a fever pitch, gold has surged back above $1315 this morning: Click to enlarge Russia appears to have every intention of destabilizing Ukraine to the point of provoking an all out civil war which will give it the cover to enter the east under the auspices of “peacekeeping”. Gold… Continue Reading

A few weeks ago we pointed out that the J.P. Morgan Chase chart held the potential for a false breakout which could be a potentially bearish omen for the broader US stock market. Since then we have seen JPM hammer out a double-top and subsequently suffer a precipitous 10%+ decline: Click to enlarge JPM has… Continue Reading

Isn’t it funny that 60 Minutes ran a headline story about how the stock market is rigged on Sunday night and the S&P 500 makes another all-time high less than 48 hours later? You simply can’t make this stuff up: Click to enlarge With today’s rally the S&P 500 has made an all-time high for… Continue Reading

As the S&P 500 flirts within 1% of fresh all-time highs, investor sentiment remains ebullient: Click to enlarge Meanwhile, the market leading small caps have begun to noticeably underperform large caps: And the longer term chart of the Russell 2000 (IWM) offers a picture of a market near a potentially decisive turning point as it… Continue Reading