I’m going to run through a few seemingly unrelated facts here fairly quickly, but the message is: the North American energy market is so opaque right now—because fundamentals are changing so fast—that my #1 2015 credo—SMALL POSITIONS—still holds true. And be prepared to change your mind in a hurry. This is the chart that is… Continue Reading
Why are recent natural gas deals in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) getting done at very expensive metrics, when the consensus for Canadian gas prices in the near to medium term is lower—potentially a lot lower? The obvious answer is LNG—Liquid Natural Gas exports; even though the first exports are realistically a minimum five… Continue Reading
To make money in this energy market, you have to be innovative and flexible. I warned subscribers earlier this year to prepare themselves for some out-of-the-box investment ideas to make 2015 a very profitable year. In 2012 I did that with refineries. In 2013 I did that with ethanol stocks as traditional upstream E&P stocks… Continue Reading
The Shale Revolution is strictly a North American game. Before the Great Commodity Collapse of 2014, it really never found its footing anywhere else in the world. Of all the plays I looked and of the few I covered, only one showed any real promise—the Vaca Muerta oil play in western Argentina. I’m now making… Continue Reading
By Nathan Weiss and Keith Schaefer Where is all the oil coming from? Oil inventories continue to surge, but U.S. production has flatlined for weeks—even months. I mean really—look at these simple facts that have been staring the Market in the face for months: Year-to-date (YTD) production in 2015 in the U.S. is only 160,000… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: As WTI crude oil tests an important area of support/resistance near $49 there are some signs that crude prices could ultimately fall below $40 if certain supply conditions remain present. The global crude oil supply/demand balance is very delicate to say the least. The following table from Morgan Stanley highlights just… Continue Reading
Via Energy and Gold.com: Small speculators more than doubled their net length in gold futures ahead of the ECB’s quantitative easing announcement on Thursday: This is the largest net long position in gold futures that small speculators have had since early July which happened to coincide with an intermediate price peak for the yellow metal. Meanwhile,… Continue Reading
There’s a race going on in the oilpatch now to the bitter end—the end of the year. And it’s not being driven by economics. It’s being driven by the REAL currency in the oilpatch: Reputation. The energy market is cyclical and all the veteran producers and bankers of the oilpatch know this. Each senior management… Continue Reading
It seems like everyone’s got an opinion on oil these days. Some people think oil is heading to $40 while others are of the opinion that the sell-off has been too harsh and prices should rebound rapidly. Sorry to disappoint but I don’t fall into either camp. Here are my thoughts on crude oil in… Continue Reading
With $36.4 billion in assets, Harvard University’s endowment fund is the largest in the world and has returned an average of over 12% annually over the past two decades. In a recent regulatory filing, the Massachusetts-based fund picked up new positions in a dozen Texas-based oil and gas companies in the third quarter amid steeply… Continue Reading
In the early phases of building an oil and gas company, you want to get a carried interest into as many high impact wells as possible that are ideally being drilled on somebody else’s dime. This reduces risk. Pan Orient Energy (POE.V) continues to reduce risk and keep a portion of the upside potential by farming out… Continue Reading
