At first sight, the following chart is pretty jaw dropping: WTI Crude Oil (spot) vs. XLE Thus far in the month of December WTI crude oil is down more than 22% while the XLE (SPDR Energy ETF) is up 1%! This tremendous outperformance by the large integrated energy companies that comprise the XLE (Chevron, Exxon… Continue Reading

It’s a bit of a tradition among market commentators to come up with a list of ‘surprises’ for the new year. Some of us like to combine both macro/geopolitical events with market events. I have decided to limit my 6 surprises to market events as that is my area of expertise and the primary focus of… Continue Reading

There is one stock in particular that caught my attention last week after displaying impressive strength following a ‘weak’ earnings report.    Then yesterday it rallied aggressively and posted a highly significant chart pattern breakout.  The stock is Canada’s favorite fallen angel, Blackberry (BBRY): The monthly chart shows how far BBRY shares fell after the company began to… Continue Reading

Over the weekend we pointed out this would be a crucial week for markets. This week’s volatility hasn’t really cleared anything up although there are some notable observations to be made after today’s trading session: Equities found support at an area of previous resistance and a key Fibonacci level Today’s large rally in interest rates is… Continue Reading

We just completed the worst week for the S&P 500 since May 2012 and there are more warning signs out there across markets than there are Christmas lights on my neighbor’s house. However, every time things have begun to look bleak this equity bull has picked up its horns and trampled over anyone who has dared to… Continue Reading

Like it or not, we are all Internet marketers now. Chances are you own a domain name or two and even host a web site for your business, hobby or personal brand. About five years ago, I set up a shared server to help a few family, friends and non-profits host web sites. One of… Continue Reading

We have various contacts at major cruise lines and commodities trading desks. Most of the airlines and cruise lines are now fully hedged on their fuel costs through the end of 2016. Even Carnival Cruise Lines, which previously prided itself on not hedging much of its fuel costs, has taken advantage of the decline in… Continue Reading

1. The yield curve has significantly flattened during 2014 with the spread between 2-year Treasury Notes and 10-year Notes falling from 264 basis points in January to 169 basis points today: Falling yields at the long end (10-year and 30-year) and rising yields at the short end (2-year and 5-year notes) are undeniable signs of… Continue Reading

From Wikipedia on the so called January effect: “The most common theory explaining this phenomenon is that individual investors, who are income tax-sensitive and who disproportionately hold small stocks, sell stocks for tax reasons at year end (such as to claim a capital loss) and reinvest after the first of the year.” In the modern… Continue Reading

A simple yet powerful technical indicator is flashing a red warning light that stocks are overheated: Click to enlarge NYSE McClellan Oscillator (ratio adjusted) with S&P 500 above 80.30 is the highest the NYSE McClellan Oscilator has read since September 18th, 2013, a date which marked a short term market top from which the S&P… Continue Reading

Here are the 5 things that you might see near a market top: 1. Commodities rolling over CRB Index   2. Deteriorating market breadth with leadership sectors (energy, financials, and technology) getting hit especially hard S&P 500 1-month heat map   3. Volatility and volume expansion S&P 500 daily with average true range below  … Continue Reading

Support/resistance levels are an important fundamental of technical analysis from which many other concepts/tools/indicators can be overlaid to create more powerful market analysis. Let’s look at the recent face-ripping rally in the Russell 2000 (IWM): Click to enlarge IWM found support near the 110-111 area many times earlier this year, therefore it is no surprise that… Continue Reading

“If you don’t do macro, macro will do you.” – Mitchell Julis Bear market rallies can be fierce. The hope for a bottom ignites a chase, especially when market participants are playing from behind; this only serves to increase exposure when investors should be doing the opposite. That makes this market as difficult as any… Continue Reading

Ten days ago before all the recent fun started we penned a piece entitled “2008 Redux?”. The main point of this piece was to highlight the striking similarities between the current market and the lead up to the 2008 market meltdown. Most notably we just witnessed one of the worst months ever (September) for commodities… Continue Reading

As I write this the S&P 500 is down nearly 3% in what is the worst day for US equities since 2011. However, it is worth noting the S&P 500 is now testing an important area of support/resistance dating back to the end of last year: Click to enlarge While there is panic in the… Continue Reading