An especially brutal round of hedge fund/mutual fund tax loss selling this week (most fund companies have fiscal years that end on October 31st) has sent gold mining shares tumbling to levels not seen since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC): Click to enlarge NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index   Gold shares have performed poorly since… Continue Reading

Support/resistance levels are an important fundamental of technical analysis from which many other concepts/tools/indicators can be overlaid to create more powerful market analysis. Let’s look at the recent face-ripping rally in the Russell 2000 (IWM): Click to enlarge IWM found support near the 110-111 area many times earlier this year, therefore it is no surprise that… Continue Reading

With the marginal cost of gold production currently pegged right around $1250/ounce (Morgan Stanley Research) it is not surprising that this level has been quite ‘sticky’ lately, first serving as support and now as resistance: Click to enlarge After the $70 rally we witnessed in the last three weeks a consolidation between $1230 and $1250 is to… Continue Reading

Some interesting & timely commodities related charts via ARC Energy and Morgan Stanley: Click to enlarge

Last week West Text Intermediate Crude Oil (WTIC) fell below $80/barrel for the first time in more than two years. While the sell-off has been sharp and powerful there are good indications that the worst is likely over for black gold with the ~$80 price level serving as major support: Click to enlarge   On an… Continue Reading

I will have a full market summary out on Sunday but for now I found two of this afternoon’s Commitments of Traders (CoT) reports to be quite curious; small speculators have moved to a record short position in gold futures (net short 6,592 contracts for a notional value of roughly $818 million), while total speculative… Continue Reading

Ten days ago before all the recent fun started we penned a piece entitled “2008 Redux?”. The main point of this piece was to highlight the striking similarities between the current market and the lead up to the 2008 market meltdown. Most notably we just witnessed one of the worst months ever (September) for commodities… Continue Reading

As I write this the S&P 500 is down nearly 3% in what is the worst day for US equities since 2011. However, it is worth noting the S&P 500 is now testing an important area of support/resistance dating back to the end of last year: Click to enlarge While there is panic in the… Continue Reading

Investors have long been trained to think that when it comes to gold, deflation is bearish and inflation is bullish. This basic economic theory holds that during inflationary periods the value of paper currency declines (less purchasing power) with every passing day, whereas gold maintains its purchasing power (hence the phrase “store of value”) and appreciates in terms… Continue Reading

After last week’s drubbing the S&P 500 has fallen to an area of confluence from which a bounce seems quite likely at some point over the coming days: Click to enlarge While a 30-50 point rally in the S&P could certainly materialize over the next couple of days, the damage inflicted across global markets is… Continue Reading

Some quality material we are reading (and watching) this weekend…. PBS documentary – “Losing Iraq” The Fat Pitch – “Weekly Market Summary” Marketwatch – “Lawrence G. McDonald says to buy certain beaten-down commodities” War Tard – “The West vs. ISIS” Peter L. Brandt – “The DAX and Russell 2000 completed major tops on Friday”

I had the pleasure of attending the 2014 Subscriber Investment Summit in Vancouver today. It was an insightful gathering of resource executives, investors, and newsletter writers. There was even a billionaire or two in the room and naturally plenty of “corporate pillow talk” (credit to Keith Schaefer for the phrase). The mood of the conference was generally… Continue Reading

After a brutal decline during the past month the gold miners had one of the most significant trading sessions in many years today: Click to enlarge Enormous volume on today’s bullish reversal after Tuesday’s ugly sell-off Some of the key factors which make today’s action so significant: Volume was more than 3 times average volume Price… Continue Reading

While we can look back to the 2008 global financial market meltdown and cite any number of warning signs that became so painfully obvious in hindsight. Perhaps the clearest warning sign that trouble was just around the corner began in July of 2008 when virtually all commodities entered into a steep tailspin which they would not… Continue Reading

With platinum and silver in free fall, and gold clinging to important support near $1180, there isn’t much for precious metals investors to get excited about. However, the palladium chart offers an intriguing setup which doesn’t come along very often: Click to enlarge  Palladium has suffered a brutal decline over the past 5 weeks after… Continue Reading